š Intro
š In the coming decades, machines will become more integrated into our day-to-day lives, ushering in a new industrial revolution āĀ We are in the process of pivoting away from an industrialized economy to a service-based economy under the influence of this inexorable trend, dubbed the āinternet of thingsā(IoT), which represents a world where more and more of the physical and digital products we interact with will become networked ā The question is, what does this mean for businesses? Which preparations can they make in order to cope with the upcoming changes?
The focus of this post is on my research on the 3rd and 4th Industrial Revolutions (IR), emphasizing major technological innovations, economic and social changes, and critical global events that led to these developments.
There is a possibility that the current macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts will serve as a catalyst for 4IR in the future, thereby concluding 3IR. My hope is that the information in this research post will help you form an opinion on the matter if you havenāt already.
š¾ Keywords
Industrial Revolution ; Macroeconomics ; Technology ; Innovation; Scientific Advancement ; World History
Table-Of-Contents
š
Overview
During the mid-18th century, Britain experienced the first industrial revolution with the invention of steam-powered machinery and the mechanization of industries; Hand- and animal-powered machinery was replaced by steam-driven machinery. This eventually led to gas-powered in 2IR, which began later in the 19th century in the US; 2IR has also been referred to as the American Industrial Revolution.
The Civil War perpetuated 2IR, which was the first industrialized war in history and led to the development of heavy industry and new metallurgical discoveries and manufacturing processes (assembly-line), including the manufacture of advanced weaponry and advancements for the field of chemistry during the war, advances in pharmacological chemistry, and improved medical sciences too. In this period, electricity was introduced, including both DC and AC current, as well as gas-powered internal combustion engines.
The third industrial revolution took place in the late 20th centuryā Like all preceding industrial revolutions before, energy was the foundational factor. In this instance, Nucular was the foundational factor. Innovations in semiconductor technology, computers, and the internet were the chief innovation of this period. From finance and banking to education and healthcare, 3IR marked the dawn of the digital era and a revolution that changed the way the world communicates and conducts business.
AI, machine learning, nanotechnology, biotechnology, big data, augmented reality/virtual reality, and decentralized ledger technology (DLT) are some of the deep-tech innovations that constitute the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). The idea is that most of the products and services that we interact with on a daily basis will become networked. The causal effect will be that civilization will become more and more reliant on tech to make decisions for us, and through networked complex systems, each business sector will become more and more efficient removing as many central points of failure as possibleā In contrast to the 1st and 2nd IRs. Many historians believe that economic and social structures are headed for radical restructuring, but it will take time to understand the social and political changes of this period.
In the 2IR section of Part-1, we reviewed the history of the American Industrial Revolution and the effect of the Civil War, which introduced innovation as a military advantage, leading to the growth of multiple industries during peacetimeāWW2 was no different, and like the IRs preceding the 3rd, The United States, Germany, UK, and Japan, were at the forefront of innovation and industrialized society. We now see new players in the global market such as China and India and the world seems to be heading toward a radical restructuring as I pointed out in the previous paragraph. Sit back and parse through my research and please let me know what you think.
š» š The 3rd Industrial Revolution (3IR)
The 3IR period refers to the time when all business sectors, industries, and geographical regions were influenced by the transition from analog manufacturing and machinery to digital and complex robotics ā The semiconductor industry, more specifically, the transistor, has led to the most rapid change in our societyās history. As the world of software product development has accelerated, the release cycle has become more frequent, and Agile software engineering practices have entered the manufacturing space as well as the hard sciences.
I am truly amazed by the speed at which things have changed over the last 50 years. Economists predict that 3IR will continue through 2030, which weāll discuss in more detail toward the end of this section. The Military Industrial Complex was crucial to the Unionās victory in the Civil War, as well as the US and its alliesā victories during World Wars 1 and 2. The causal effect of the civil war led to the nucleic innovations of 2IR, within this period, whilst WW2 led to the core innovations of 3IR.
There was a strong sense of patriotism in the free world during this time, and young soldiers heading to war believed in what they were fighting for. In their struggle, they fought for the preservation of democracy and the abolition of tyranny. Women, men, and children mobilized in each theater of war and at home to contribute to the war effort. For the war to be won, our best minds worked together to solve complex scientific and engineering challenges: nuclear fission (the Manhattan Project was the chief innovation), jet propulsion, encryption, and decryption technology. When the US population is united, we can solve any problem, no matter how ridiculous it may seem.
We can evaluate the economic growth rate and the rate of innovation during each of the IRs. In this case, the outcome is fairly straightforward. Countries that have adapted to rapid changes in commerce and have become more resilient have seen their GDP grow faster.
There is an interesting case study in India and China as they are both major emerging economies- to examine how globalization and financialization have affected them. Despite many of the previous figures being questioned and now appearing to be inaccurate, China has seen a rapidly increasing rate of growth in GDP though many of the previous figures are now being questioned and now appear to be synthesized and nowhere near their claimed levelsā Nonetheless, China has grown from a 3rd world country into a major superpower more quickly than any other country in the history of the world. India, on the other hand, and in my more personal opinion, will lead the world as the second-largest economic force within a few business cycles and by the end of 3IR which is assumed to be around 2030 as we previously reviewed. This assumption also factors in the fact that Chinaās economy will remain a major contributor to an expected globalization 2.0 when and if it materializes.
ā 3IR Overview- Closing thoughts
Once again, in the aftermath of a major war, the semiconductor industry came to lifeāThe relationship between technological innovation and war. The chief energy innovation or source of energy has defined each revolution throughout history. In the 1IR it was steam, in the 2nd it was electrical, and toward the end of the 2nd, and just before the 3rd it was nuclear. Energy is the lifeblood of the world economy, and renewable zero-emission energy sources will be the leading energy innovation in the 4IR.
šØāš» š± The Tech & Innovations Of 3IR
I will be reviewing a number of technologies as part of the 3IR innovation section, but not all of them represent every major innovation of the period. I tried to cover as many core innovations as possible in this section without making it too wordy or too exhaustive - I will only focus on the chief innovation in this period, the information age and the internet. Thus, I would like to emphasize that all industries have seen rapid advancements within the same period, but computers, information technology, and the internet, which I will discuss in this post, have had a greater impact on the world than anything else, periodā¦
The history of the computer can also be viewed as the history of Silicon Valley, an area around San Francisco Bay that has been the mecca of scientific innovation for the entire history of electronics. Scientists and Engineers were drawn to the area as part of the mass migration west, as well as to explore themselves and advance civilization through science ā the Model K Adder was designed by Bell Labs Scientist George Stibitz in 1937, demonstrating that Boolean logic could be used to design computer circuits. It was during the same year that German engineer Konrad Zuse built the Z2 computer ā Both the Model K Adder and Z Computer used relays taken from telephone-company design. Letās fast forward a bit, but to establish historical context between 1937- 1950, there were many substantial contributions to the world of computers, from the Colossus, which was invented by British Engineer Tommy Flowers to break complex Lorenz ciphers which were used by Natzi Germany in 1944 during WW2, and the invention of the transistor in 1947, by three Bell Labs Scientists.
ERA1101 was the first computer to be commercially produced in 1950, and the US Navy was the companyās first customer. It was mostly government and private institutions that used computers to solve complex real-time problems before the 1980s. Providing an excellent example of how compute-power was employed during this period was for the Apollo flight control computer ā in 1968, the Instrumentation Laboratory at MIT created the Apollo flight control computer, or AGC, which was designed to take a system the size of 7 refrigerators down to 70 pounds.
As computing devices such as the Apple II were introduced, it slowly became more about the average consumer and less about work-related tasks. Besides being productivity tools, these early consumer products also became popular gaming devices in the 1980s. A mouse-driven personal computer was released by Apple in 1984 called the Macintosh. In 1984, Michael Dell founded PCās Limited, producing the first computer of his own design a year later.
Compaqās Deskpro 286 system in 1986 featured Intelās 80386 chip, a 32-bit microprocessor with 275,000 transistors per chip, as a reference point for the overall computing power during this period. With 4 kilobytes of memory, this machine was capable of performing 4 million operations. This machine introduced 32-bit architecture for the first time, a significant improvement over the 16-bit architecture used in previous personal computers.
During the post-war period, computer science and electrical engineering emerged as two of the fastest-growing fields of science and engineering. Information Theory, which studies the storage, quantification, and communication of information, led to the work around the communication between computers through networks during this nascent period. Using data in message blocks, Paul Baran proposed a solution to the computer communications problem space in the 1960s. A UK commercial data network was proposed by Donald Davis in 1965 using packet switching.
This period was a major time for the development of personal computers and networking. The DODās Advanced Research Projects Agency, or ARPA, awarded Robert Taylor and Lawrence Roberts contracts to establish ARPANET in 1969. Incorporating the packet-switching technology proposed by Paul Baran and Donald Davis, along with Leonard Kleinrockās mathematical work, ARPANET was created. Currently owned by Raytheon, Bolt, Beranek, and Newman built the network itself. Many packet-switching networks were created during the 1970s. Developed in 1974 by Bob Kahn at ARPA and Vint Cerf at Stanford University, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and Internet Protocol (IP) are the two protocols underpinning network computers.
The World Wide Web was invented in 1989 by Tim Berners-Lee at CERN in Switzerland as part of an information system that linked hypertext documents. The widespread use of fiber optic cable in the early 1990s and until the mid-2000s made it possible for internet speeds to increase from 1Gbit/s to 800Gbit/s by 2019. The internet has become the connecting fabric of our modern society so the impact of this āsingularā innovation alone cannot be underestimated.
š¤ š The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR)
A team of artificial intelligence researchers made a groundbreaking discovery on March 16, 2016, proving to the world that AI can compete with humans when it comes to solving complex problem sets that require both extreme intelligence and creative thinking. The world of computer science, science more broadly, and engineering will forever be changed by this inciting event. Many saw this day as the precursor to the singularity event for artificial intelligence. Among the participants in this project are the British mathematician and computer scientist Demis Hassabis, together with his colleagues Shane Legg and Mustafa Suleyman, all of whom are leading the efforts at DeepMind, a Google Ventures-backed artificial intelligence research facility that develops deep neural networks and advanced artificial intelligence models for general-purpose applications and to assist in solving some of the worldās most pressing problems.
AlphaGo is a computer program that utilizes deep-learning neural networks to defeat a human opponent. AlphaGo first made headlines when it convincingly defeated European Go champion Fan Hui five games to zero. This was a remarkable achievement, as Go had long been considered a grand challenge for artificial intelligence. It was on March 2016 that AlphaGo defeated one of the worldās top Go players, Lee Sedol, four games to one.
Go is a game that has been played for thousands of years- Itās both one of the simplest and most abstract games in the world. The objective of the game is to surround enemy stones on the board. The pieces that are surrounded are captured from the board once they are surrounded. Capturing territory from your opponent earns you points. Ultimately, the player who has captured the most territory wins.
Considering how complex it would be to train a program to beat the best Go players in the world, DeepMind provided an amazing reference for the sheer scope of this accomplishmentā. The game GO has more ways to conclude a game than there are atoms in the universe. A lifetime of continuous practice and intense concentration is required to master this game at the level of the professionals this program would be competing againstā¦ In the event that you feel a sense of fear, I wouldnāt worry about it, as it merely shows that you are a human being.
š¤ As A Refresher - Lets Review What A General Purpose AI Is:
āGeneral purpose AI systemā means an AI system that is able to perform generally ap- plicable functions such as image/speech recognition, audio/video generation, pattern detection, question answering, translation, etc, and is able to have multiple intended and unintended purposes.ā
We live in a world of varying levels of contrast and paradoxes. In the United States, we are experiencing some of the highest levels of homelessness in human history at the same time we are experiencing wealth creation at a rate never seen before in human history. In fact, financialization and economic globalization, as defined by the WOE, could be an underlying cause for such enormous contrasts and income inequality.
āIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.ā ~ Charles Dickenson
šÆ Never let a crisis go to waste
Gross domestic product or GDP and employment trended upwards for most of the global superpowers for the entirety of 3IR, factoring in each of the major market capitulations in the 1970s, 80s, and late-90s, and earlyā2000, and includes 2008, and most recently 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemicā 2022, or current, and the great reset, as it has been colloquially referred to as by pundits and arm-chair economists alike. It is possible that this period is comparable to that of the American Civil War and the subsequent industrial growth that led to the American Industrial Revolution.
Developing a robust education system to feed complex systems of the industry has become one of the most important components of a nationās growth and the world economy - The quality of higher education in the United States is the foundation of our nationās prosperity. Our market economy is governed by 51 states that all operate according to many of the same principles. Although our private healthcare system is considered broken by the standards of other 1st world nations, it allows rapid iteration and innovation within it. Banks, insurance companies, automakers, etc., follow a similar set of guiding principles throughout our nation. However, when people are divided and they do not work towards a common goal, the system in which we live seems to break down and become increasingly inefficient as time goes on. It is my expectation that the world will continue to shift from industrial to entirely post-industrial over the next decade and that we will increasingly rely on technology for decisions and for tasks that others are less interested in fulfilling.
š š” The Tech and Innovations of 4IR
āļø What is Machine Learning?
Scientifically, machine learning involves the development of algorithms and statistical models that computer systems use to efficiently accomplish specific tasks using patterns and inferences instead of explicit instructions. Generally, it is regarded as a subset of artificial intelligence. A machine learning algorithm makes predictions or decisions based on sample data, called training data. The use of machine learning algorithms covers a wide range of general-purpose applications, such as email filtering, network intrusion detection, and computer vision.
In 1949 Arthur Samuel defined machine learning as a Field of study that gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed.
š¤ What Is Artificial Intelligence?
The field of artificial intelligence (AI) focuses on the creation of intelligent agents, which are autonomous systems that can reason, learn, and act on their own. In artificial intelligence research, we study how to create computers that behave intelligently. In addition to rule-based systems, decision trees, genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy logic systems, artificial intelligence technology has been successfully applied to expert systems, natural language processing, gaming, vision, and robotics, among other domains.
The 4th Industrial Revolution(4IR) will be shaped by the tides of a pervasive interconnected industrial shift; our digital, physical, and biological worlds will become homogenized networks; similar to the systems I discussed in my posts discussing web3.0 and tokenomics, the new system will be based on economies designed solely based on software and computer logic. In addition to decentralized ledger technology and blockchain, there are a lot more aspects to this theory. During the 4th Industrial Revolution, we will enter the postindustrial era for the first time. Demographic shifts and an aging workforce have put pressure on both the US and the world economy, but the dollarās value has remained relatively stable despite recent periods of capitulation and fear. I believe that ML and AI general-purpose technology will continue to have a significant impact on civilization as young demographics continue to rely on technology to make decisions for them.
š š Mobility & Energy
Since the first gas-powered internal combustion engines appeared on the market in the ~ late 19th century, the automotive industry has gone through both subtle and radical changes. A 4IR world will initially revolve around electromobility, which falls into the category of sustainability ; once that phase is over, our consumer vehicles will become nodes within a system of vehicles, assuming the concept of vehicle ownership persists. Post-industrial worlds are more likely to see vehicle ownership diminish or at least abate rapidly, with vehicle ownership largely based on renting.
The differences between internal combustion gas-powered vehicles and electric vehicles should be noted when comparing them to support the continued adoption of electric vehicles over other sustainable and renewable fuel sources that are both non-carbon-based and zero-emission-based. Both electric vehicles and gasoline-powered vehicles are primarily used for transportation between locations. Around the world, the automobile has been a symbol of freedom. They both give you the freedom to explore and to do what you want, but they differ in their design. Unlike traditional cars, Teslas are not designed to be a driverās car. In contrast to manual transmission cars and ICEs, theyāre designed for a vehicleās core use case: transportation or mobility.
After spending some time with EVs in the past, itās clear that they are moving iPhones in a way, with fewer moving components and fewer people required to build and maintain them. To ensure the continued use of internal combustion engines, companies such as Toyota and Subaru are currently developing a zero-emission fuel that is non-carbon-based (I will cover this fuel in more detail in a post in the near future), though I believe they may not be allocating resources and deploying capital correctly for research and development in order to keep the industry intact.
With fewer parts to plug into the theoretical network of machines in the post-industrial future, EVs seem to be a more realistic option than alternative fuel ICEs. Personally, I hope zero-emission ICEs become feasible, but at the same time, Iām hyper-confident that EVs are more representative of the current market demands of younger consumers and demographics throughout the world well beyond the US, Europe, and Chinaā Some of the other trends in the mobility space will include new, more sustainable sources of propellants for jet-based airplanes, and continued investment in high-speed rail systems and supply chain optimizations through improved shipping of freight through the use of deep-tech such as the ML and AI models we have reviewed thus far in this post.
From an energy perspective, the newly developed alternative sources of energy, wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear, will all be networked, allowing each system of energy to support each other, feeding and taking from the grid in the most efficient ways possible, based on machine learning and artificial intelligence.
š” Final Thoughts
The industrial and post-industrial ages represent the greatest rates of advancement that our civilization has experiencedā with each revolution, starting with the first (1IR), change has been truly exponential, and release cycles for both digital and physical products have shortened over time.
Though there is no doubt that society is in the midst of a storm. The aftermath of COVID-19 is still looming, but the core effects of the pandemic are striking at random and at a rate comparable to the release cycles of modern-day product teams, and unemployment, death, homelessness, famine, etc., have already set in, and the world is now in a period of widespread restructuring. Since the 2008 financial crisis, governments and central banks have been engaged in the mania of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as the seemingly endless use of quantitative easing and cheap money spending to solve problems.
A number of economists believed that there was no theoretical limit to how much money the central bank could print before the 2008 debt and subprime lending crisis. Therefore, it was assumed that the free market would correct itself to account for influxes of capital, inflation, deflation, devaluation, etc, within a market economy. Clearly, the monetary hypothesis was not validated or proven in the modern era. In this article, we examined how globalization can be regarded as a primary cause of both the creation and destruction of wealth throughout human history. When looking at the rate of wealth growth for working-class earners during the British Industrial Revolution (1IR), wages stagnated for the working class, whereas the top 1% made more money than ever. Using this period as a comparison, we can identify patterns and devise ways to avoid the same problem in the future.
Steam power and mechanization of the industry took place in the 1IR. Steam-powered engines gave way to electric power and mass production in the 2IR; in the 3IR, we shifted into the digital age, transforming the nature of economics and business strategies everywhere due to the introduction of the personal computer and the internetā As we reviewed earlier in this post, we are closely approaching the beginning of the 4th industrial revolution, with many economists speculating about a 5th revolution within my lifetime.
To avoid raising too many concerns about the current economic state, it is worthwhile to review current events for what they are and to consider how we can mitigate personal risks and control outcomes using the resources and opportunities currently available to us. In the manner of H L Mencken, Iāve always been a vigorous cynic, along with being a blind optimist, a quality I inherited from my father, who witnessed many world events of far greater magnitude than those we are currently facing.
While speaking with a friend who is on the NYPD force yesterday, we discussed this very point. After World War II, our parents endured the Korean War, the Civil Rights movement, Vietnam, Cold War, and the list goes on and on. History doesnāt necessarily repeat itself, but it rhymes. As I observe how my father copes with crises, I realize that seemingly catastrophic world events are simply a part of life. Itās true we live in radically different times and face radically different world events, but the events arenāt that different from those of the past. As always and invariably, life goes on.
To reaffirm a point, I have concluded this post by reviewing the social and economic challenges we are currently facing as a society as a case study to review and make a point so that we can be better prepared for the next bull market and economic comeback - Once again, and at this point, it may sound redundant; history does not necessarily repeat itself, but it rhymes. This logic leads to the conclusion that the current economic crisis will be the inciting event that will lead to future industrial revolutions.
In order to benchmark where I was in my efforts, I defined a few hypotheses to test and goals to measure when I began my research for this post. Using this insight alone, I was able to identify patterns that will enable me to make better business and economic decisions moving forward. In light of the historical context that I have logged in posthumously for readers of my blog long after this post is published, I will now focus on more explicit technologies and contemporary topics relevant to my core areas of focus as well as based on feedback from my readers and market research.
š š Conclusion
As always, thank you, fam - For taking the time to parse through my post series covering each of the 4 industrial revolutions. My next post will be a follow-up post, as I continue to present my research and work around tokenomics and token engineering. By far, this two-part series required the greatest amount of time: research, draft writing, and editing of any blog post to date. I will revert back to topic-focused posts going forward as part of my overall content strategy.
Though writing, in and of itself, is far from a new focus, this is the first time I have ever concurrently developed, written, and optimized a blog, which has been a true lifesaver in recent history and provided an immense amount of satisfaction. SEO and keyword analysis are areas I was familiar with, but due to this project, for the first time, I have been actively researching and studying best practices around this area of focus, along with the refinement of my writing through reading and research. Currently, Iām reading a book titled, Writing With Style, by John R. Trimble and A Writers Companion, by Richard Marius.
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